Eppstein predicts Clinton/Obama ticket
Republicans usually pay thousands of dollars for Bryan Eppstein’s political advice.
The consultant gave it away for the price of lunch Thursday, addressing the monthly meeting of the Republican Forum at the Petroleum Club in downtown Fort Worth.
Among his predictions: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will share the Democratic presidential ticket.
"They can not hold their party together unless they have that ticket,” Eppstein said. “Hillary is appealing to the older Democrat faction. Barack Obama is appealing to the younger faction.
“If they don’t hold that together, then I’ll go out on a limb: Republicans will win. John McCain will be the next president,” Eppstein said, drawing a couple of “wow”s from the crowd.
He added: “But I think they’re going to hold it together."
Eppstein also gave McCain some advice on picking a running mate.
“He needs to look for a young leader who will project an image of the future leadership of the Republican party,” Eppstein said.
The consultant dumped a lot of data on the audience, mostly related to the recent primary. He said the high Democratic primary turnout isn’t so worrisome, arguing that Republicans would have turned out higher if John McCain didn’t appear to have the GOP nomination sewn up.
More interesting than the turnout to Eppstein is the undervotes: those that just voted for president and left the rest of the ballot blank.
Statewide, the Democratic undervote was between 40 and 50 percent, Eppstein said. For the GOP, it was between 30 and 40 percent, he said.
That should strike fear into both parties, but especially Republicans who in the past have been able to coast to victory based largely on the Republican straight-ticket voters, Eppstein warned.
“A lot of people will say the race at the top of the ticket in this upcoming election will be the presidential race,” Eppstein said. “Well that’s not really true. The race that’s at the top of the ticket will be the straight ticket option.
“I see a lot of people voting but I don’t see a lot of them voting straight ticket. because I think voters, Democrat and Republican voters, have kind of lost their sense of confidence in the two parties,” Eppstein said.
Other Eppstein musings:
Why Fort Worth Mayor Mike Moncrief is like Arnold Schwarzenegger:
They project leadership, Eppstein said. That’s why Schwarzenegger, a Republican, is able to lead a Democratic state like California and why Moncrief, a Democrat, is so well liked by Republicans in Fort Worth.
Why the Democrats should stop talking about the 2006 District Attorney race:
Eppstein said Tim Curry’s six-point win over Terri Moore in 2006 was because Curry did not run hard enough. It’s not proof that Democrats can win a county-wide race anytime soon.
“I really believe if Tim Curry had really cranked it up and kicked it into super-high gear instead of just high gear, his margin would have been wider.”
On the 2008 elections in Texas:
“We’re not going to lose the majority in the Texas House. We’re not going to lose the majority in the Texas Senate. But those majorities could continue to shrink,” Eppstein said.
He noted there are a few tough races in the state senate, including one in Tarrant County. Eppstein is representing State Sen. Kim Brimer of Fort Worth in his re-election bid against former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis.
Why you can't trust polls this year:
Young voters are going to be the key to winning this November, Eppstein said. Pollsters can't properly gauge what they're thinking because most of them don't have land lines, just cell phones. "The pollsters will be very challenged nationally to see what's going on," Eppstein said.
That's guess work at best and a flawed assumption. If it is Hillary, look for OH Governor Ted Strickland. If Obama, it could be a number of people, including PA Gov and ex-DNC Chair Ed Rendell if he pulls out a victory there in a few weeks. If the convention is still deadlocked after two rounds, look for a Gore-Obama ticket.
Posted by:BlueElvis | April 08, 2008 at 10:12 AM