Two new polls released in Davis/Brimer race

You know it's going to be an interesting race when both sides are claiming bragging rights from the same polling numbers.

In the state senate race between Republican Kim Brimer of Fort Worth and former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis, both show Brimer with a slim lead over Davis.

In a poll conducted for Davis' campaign by Washington, D.C.-based Democratic pollsters Bennett, Petts & Normington, Brimer nabs 39 percent of voters compared to Davis' 35 percent if the election were held today. Results are based on 400 likely voters in the district. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Austin-based TXPollWatch.com then released the results of an automated poll which has Brimer leading 44.27 percent to Davis' 35.35 percent. The results are weighted based on a sample size of 466. The margin of error is 4.54 percent. (Texas Poll Watch is a brand new site and has caught some serious flak for another recent poll.)

Bryan Eppstein, spokesman for Brimer, said, "There are two Democratic polls and both polls show Brimer winning. What does that tell you? It shows Brimer’s going to win the race this fall."

Davis spokesman Matt Latham sounded incredulous by Eppstein's response.

"He's not leading by much," Latham said, "Any incumbent who's been in office for 20 years and who's excited about a 44% (showing) is not really in touch with how this race is going."

UPDATE: Davis' campaign is now calling into question the accuracy of the Texas Poll Watch results. Among their concerns: the background of Mark Littlefield, one of the men behind the site.

-Aman Batheja

Comments

[Interested onlooker]

There are two people happy about these polls: Wendy Davis and Bryan Eppstein.

- Wendy Davis is taking on a 20 year incumbent who can't even break 50% in either poll.

-Bryan Eppstein gets to charge Brimer a gazillion dollars for convincing voters Brimer isn't that bad and somehow actually cares about them.

Buckle your seats folks....

[Brown Bess]

This would be more interesting if we knew the internals of the polls - % of black voters participating vs past election results, for example. Do these polls anticipate an increase in the black turnout in a district that has, what 80% of the black vote in Tarrant County?

Do some analysis on the results instead of just republishing the final numbers.

[Recyclican]

I hope the outcome of this election will reflect these polls; however I hope too that the outcome of this election will be an eye-opener for Brimer and his colleagues.

Don't get too comfortable in office - your constituency will hold you accountable if you drift too far away from your Party and their platform.

[Todd]

I am not a democrat but as a cyclist, there is no way I could support Kim Brimer. May his archaic thinking be his undoing. 20 years is enough.

[Brown Bess]

What are the internals - like what was the percentage of expected black turnout in the poll vs what it was in 2004/2006?

[J]

Brimer is also the person last year who killed the bill that would have made it a law to treat bicyclists the same as automobile operators.

It's time to put the a member of the good `ol boy network to pasture.

[Jim]

I too am a cyclist-
Senator Brimer supported the "Safe Routes to Schools" program - then killed the "Safe Pssing Law for Cyclists." He doesn't believe bicycles should be on "farm market, or rural roadways". So, cyclists should not stray too far from local schools?

His "Brimer Amemendment" to kill the safe passing bill would make the law not apply on roadways without a shoulder! In other words, he slipped in an amendment to kill/make worthless this bill beyond his simple vote. Not only did he kill a necessary law - he did it in the under-handed, them against us, method we all hope to see end in our government. - Stand up and make your point! - Stand up and make your vote! Don't slip in such amendments.

Its time to retire back to your ranch property and leave Austin to someone else. We'll try not to bicycle past too often.