Politex

Perry cracks "first tier" in Sabato's Crystal Ball

   Even though he is still undecided, Gov. Rick Perry has vaulted into the upper-crust of potential GOP candidates in Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online election analysis headed by much-quoted political observer Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

   The rankings handicapped the prospects of 11 announced and non-announced candidates and listed three in descending order in the top tier - Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the perceived Republican front-runner, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, and Perry.

   A thumbs-up icon, which designated candidates who are gaining momentum, was displayed alongside all three of the first tier candidates.  The breakdown also listed strengths and weaknesses.

   Perry, the only first-tier designee who is not officially in the race, was scored favorably for being the governor of a mega-state who is long on electoral experience, a DC outsider and able to raise big bucks in Texas.  His disadvantages included mixed popularity back home, comments about secession, his status as a newcomer to national scrutiny and potential Texas fatigue after two Bush administrations.

   Romney was ranked favorably for a strong business background in a bad economy and for his past presidential campaign experience, but he lost points for his "Romneycare" health plan and weak frontrunner status.  Bachmann's advantages included strong Tea Party support and a good media presence.  But she was also described as highly controversial and unlikely to win in the fall general election.

    Another Texan, Congressman Ron Paul, was placed in the lowest category - third tier - along with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana, who was at the bottom of the list.  The analysis showed Paul with a thumbs-up in momentum, while Gingrich had a thumbs-down.

    The second tier candidates were former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, businessman Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman, former ambassador to China.

   Kyle Kondik, political analyst for Sabato's Crystal Ball, said the continually updated run-down is "just sort of our perception of where the race is based on what we've read, what we've heard and what the polls said.

  "It's not scientific," he said.  "It's sort of our collective observation."

  -- Dave Montgomery  

Poll: Obama leads Perry in Texas

Democratic firm Public Policy Polling has a counterargument of sorts to the national poll released Tuesday night showing Perry near the top of the pack among Republican presidential candidates.

In a poll of 795 Texas voters from June 25-27, Raleigh, NC-based PPP found that Perry would lose to President Barack Obama 47-45 in the state, with 8 percent of voters undecided. Republicans fare better in Texas with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or Texas Congressman Ron Paul on the ballot, in both cases leading Obama by single digits. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Polling director Tom Jensen warned on the organization’s blog Wednesday that Democrats shouldn’t get too excited by the results, explaining that "the vast majority of undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama is doing."

The same poll found that Bachmann is viewed most favorably among Texans while Palin has the highest unfavorables. Only 33 percent of Texans think Perry should run for president, while 59 percent said he shouldn’t.

Also of note is how a respondent feels about the idea of secession correlates to their support for Perry in the White House.

"In the matchup between Perry and Obama, secessionists support Perry 73-19 while those who want to stay in the US support Obama 56-37," Jensen wrote.

Full poll results are here.

-Aman Batheja

Williams firing back

On Tuesday, when former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams announced he is running for the U.S. House District 33 seat, his chief challenger -- former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams -- had a few words to say.

Michael Williams said he believed the contrast of the two candidates would show "Roger's record of self-promotion and personal advancement."

On Wednesday, Roger Williams' campaign spokesman Kasey Pipes told the media that he's disappointed to see Michael Williams "crawling in the mud."

"Perhaps he is coming to the bitter realization that he would have been better off staying in Austin where he lives," Pipes said.

-- Anna M. Tinsley

Poll: Perry tied for 2nd among Republican primary candidates, loses to Obama in head-to-head

A new poll suggests Texas Gov. Rick Perry's flirtation with a presidential run may be having an impact among the electorate.

The McClatchy-Marist poll of Republican-leaning registered voters shows Perry tied for second among potential 2012 candidates.

The survey, taken June 15-23, included 801 registered voters, with 308 Republicans or GOP-leaning independents.

Among Republican or GOP-leaning respondents, Perry and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani both drew 13 percent support, behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's 19 percent support. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul received 5 percent support. The margin of error in that part of the poll is +/- 5 percentage points.

Among just Tea Party supporters, Perry bested all other Republicans, drawing 20 percent support.

When all 801 respondents were asked whether they would vote for President Barack Obama or one of the GOP contenders, Romney fared best, losing to Obama by 4 points, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Against Perry, Obama led 48 percent to 39 percent. Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann all lost by more than Romney or Perry against Obama, according to the poll.

More details about the poll are here. The full poll results are here.

-Aman Batheja

Bob Ray Sanders: FBI raid raises the stakes for John Wiley Price

The Star-Telegram's Bob Ray Sanders discussed the John Wiley Price case with Jane McGarry at NBC 5 on Monday evening. Here's the clip:

View more videos at: http://www.nbcdfw.com.

Another Davis filibuster? "Not likely," she says

  The special session is heading for a finale on Wednesday, but Sen. Wendy Davis says she has no plans for a  replay of the dramatic final-day filibuster that forced lawmakers into overtime nearly a month ago. 

 "Not for me, and I don't think for any of my colleagues either," says the Fort Worth Democrat, when asked about the prospects for a replay.

   Davis filibustered for more than an hour at the end of the 140-day regular session to block passage of a revenue-and-school-finance package that would implement reduced state education assistance to school districts.  Gov. Rick Perry called the special session the next day to deal with the bill and later added several other items to the agenda.

   Lawmakers are on track to pass a revived version of the bill, which contains $4 billiion in state education cuts,  in the final hours of the session.   Davis says she will likely raise questions about the bill when itl comes to the Senate flloor but is "not likely" to wage a filibuster.

   "Another special session on that question isn't going to achieve a different result," she said.   But, she adds: "It's awfully tempting when, once again, the super-majority of Republicans (in the Legislature) can't seem to get it together enough to get what are considered the important bills of the special session passed in a timely fashion.

   "The vacuum of leadership here is quite apparent," she said. 

   Davis came under criticism from Perry and other Republicans for forcing the special session but she has said that the filibuster achieved its intended result by focusing public awareness of the education cuts and their impact on public schools.  

   -- Dave Montgomery             

Barton: Shuffle up and deal

U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Arlington, proposed a bill Friday to regulate Internet poker.

Barton, who has played poker for free on the Internet and for money in casinos, said this is about consumer protection.

"We want to have an iron-clad system to make sure that those who play for money are playing in an honest, fair system where they can reap the benefits of their winnings," Barton said. "This bill is about having the personal freedom to play a skill-based game you enjoy without fear of breaking the law."

-- Anna M. Tinsley

 

Barton to run in District 6

U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Arlington, has decided to run for re-election in his redrawn District 6 -- rather than the newly drawn District 33.

District 33 is one of four new districts Texas picked up because of population and growth over the past decade. District 33 includes Arlington, parts of Tarrant and Wise counties and all of Parker County.

At least one person -- former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams -- has announced he's running for the new district and others, such as former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, soon may follow.

But political experts have said Barton -- with his years in office and name recognition -- would win if he switched to District 33.

Barton formally announced Thursday he will stay in the redrawn District 6, which includes parts of southern Tarrant County including Mansfield, parts of Dallas and Johnson Counties and all of Ellis County.

-- Anna M. Tinsley

Try our PoliTex quiz: Where in Texas do these bills apply?

In today's Star-Telegram, we took a look at a practice known as "bracketing" in which lawmakers make sure a bill only applies to one or two areas in the state.

Instead of explicitly naming a city or county, bill writers in Austin employ an odd system that can be difficult to translate without a map and the latest census report.

Sometimes bracketing is fairly simple. When state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, wanted to propose a bill exempting religious institutions in Houston from drainage charges, his bill was written to apply only to properties in “municipalities with a population of 1.9 million or more.”

Only Houston fits the description.

Things get more confusing when a bill targets a smaller area. 

We took some of the language from bills filed this year to create a quiz. See how well you do at deciphering the bracketing code.

 

With national press watching, Perry's "tweeter" gaffes draw more scorn

Gov. Rick Perry may be a whiz on Twitter but he has a problem with saying the name of the popular social networking site.

Perry reportedly drew laughter when he referred to the site as "tweeter" in a video shot for a conservative convention in Minneapolis over the weekend. The story was quickly picked up by several national news outlets.

What's remarkable is that Perry made the exact same gaffe two years ago and barely anyone noticed. Back in 2009, then-Houston Chronicle reporter R.G. Ratcliffe taped Perry encouraging young conservatives to use "tweeter" to mobilize voters. Ratcliffe posted the video online. It prompted some guffaws and that was the end of it.

Now, as a potential candidate for president, Perry makes the same mistake and it draws considerable attention and prompts reporters to cite it as another example of how Perry is like his predecessor, who also occasionally mangled the English language.

Check out the two videos. The first is Perry's video address from this weekend. Below that is Ratcliffe's footage from an event in 2009. 

 

-Aman Batheja